Of course, the Jets, Bills, and Browns all drafted quarterbacks in the first round of the 2019 Draft, while the Giants, Lions, and Vikings are all paying big dollars to veteran quarterbacks. How would the data look if we excluded the top (by salary cap dollars) quarterback on each team?

I re-ran those numbers today.  Once again, we will be using the Concentration Index, described here, to “grade” each team’s roster construction. To summarize, we do the following steps:

1) Calculate the 2019 salary cap hit of the top 51 players on each team’s roster. Thanks to Over The Cap, I was able to collect this information.  Eliminate the highest paid QB on each team’s roster.

2) For each player on each team, calculate the percentage of team salary cap dollars spent on that player. For example, Denver’s Von Miller has a 2019 cap hit of $25.1M, and the Broncos top 50 players (excluding QB Joe Flacco) have a cap hit of $142M. Therefore, Miller is taking up 17.7% of Denver’s non-Flacco 2019 cap spend.

3) Square the result for each player (so Miller’s 17.7% becomes 3.1%), and then sum those results for each player on each team to get team grades.

By squaring the results, you give more weight to players taking up a larger percentage of their team’s pie.   The graph below shows each team.  The X-Axis shows the 2019 Salary Cap dollars each team spent on their 50 highest paid players, excluding their top quarterback.  The Y-Axis is the concentration index result.  The Broncos are at the top of the chart, thanks in large part due to Miller.  Ignoring Flacco, Denver’s top 6 players (Miller, Emmanuel Sanders, Derek Wolfe, Ronald Leary, Chris Harris, Jr., and newly-added Ja’Wuan James) are being paid $75M 2019 cap dollars, while the Broncos bottom 37 players (in their top 51) are being paid just $35.3M. That’s an extreme “studs and duds” approach that becomes even more clear once you remove all top-paid quarterbacks.

The Giants still come in as very star-focused, as do the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Chargers. But perhaps the most interesting team is the Cowboys, who ranked in the middle on yesterday’s list. In 2019, 30 of the 32 teams are paying a quarterback at least $3.5M cap dollars; only the Cowboys and Ravens are not (and, for what it’s worth, Baltimore has $16M of dead cap money on its book in 2019 for Flacco). But Dallas has spent the second-most 2019 cap dollars (behind only the Browns) on today’s list, and it’s pretty highly concentrated.

Just seven players — Demarcus Lawrence, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, Amari Cooper, Travis Frederick, Tyrone Crawford, and La’el Collins are costing Dallas $95.0M cap dollars in 2019. Meanwhile, 39 of the team’s top 51 players (including Prescott) are costing the team less than $3M to their 2019 cap.

On the low side of the spectrum, the Bills are still the team that has spread things around the most, but the 2nd-least concentrated team is the New England Patriots. Let’s compare the Patriots to the Cowboys. New England’s top 7 players (excluding, of course, Tom Brady) cost their 2019 cap $73M: they are Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Dont’a Hightower, Marcus Cannon, Shaquille Mason, and Michael Bennett. But the Patriots have a healthy middle class, with 11 players cost the team between $3.0 and $7.0M; the Cowboys have just four.

Below you will find 38 pairs of numbers. In each case, you tell me which number will be bigger. One point for each correct answer. Most points wins.

Ties — and I expect there to be a nontrivial number of them — go to the side that had fewer votes. For example, here is a pair:

Number of wins by the Lions
Number of wins by the Ravens

Let’s say 49 people take the Lions and 44 take the Ravens. If the Lions and Ravens end up with the same number of wins, then each Ravens-backer will get a point and each Lions-backer will not. Last year, JimZornsLemma won with 25 correct guesses out of 38; the average was just 19 correct guesses. Thanks to Jeremy De Shetler for an assist on some of this year’s questions.

GRAND PRIZE: the main prizes will be (1) honor and (2) glory. There may also be some sort of trinket to be named later. By the time this thing is over, more than five months will have passed, so that gives me some time to scrape something together. But you probably shouldn’t enter unless honor and glory are sufficient.

MORE RULES:

1. Everyone is limited to one entry per person. This will be enforced by the honor system. If caught breaking this rule, you, your children, and your children’s children will be banned from all future FP contests.

2. I won’t enter the contest myself, which will allow me to arbitrate any dispute impartially. Any ambiguity in the rules will be clarified by me in whatever way causes me the least amount of hassle.

3. While there are quite a few items that refer in some way to the NFL postseason, unless specifically stated, all the items below refer to regular season totals only.

5. You may enter until 1:00 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, September 9th, 2018. However, there’s an incentive to entering early because…

6. In the event that the contest ends in a tie, the winner will be the person whose entry was submitted first.

HOW TO ENTER: PLEASE READ IF YOU WANT TO ACTUALLY ENTER THE CONTEST.

Cut-and-paste the list of questions below into your editor of choice, THEN DELETE THE CHOICES you don’t like (thereby leaving the ones you do like), and then cut-and-paste your 38 answers into the comments of this thread. Please do not edit the text in any way other than deleting half of it. If you want to leave non-entry comments, you are free to do so either at the very end of your entry or in a subsequent comment, but please do not put commentary in the body of your entry.

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Number of wins by the Lions
Number of wins by the Ravens

Wins by the New England Patriots
Rushing touchdowns by Todd Gurley

Interceptions by the defensive INT leader
Sacks by the defensive sack leader, -10

Games started by Baker Mayfield
Games started by Lamar Jackson

League games decided by 35 or more points
League games decided in overtime

Wins by the Cleveland Browns
Losses by the Jacksonville Jaguars

League kickoff return touchdowns
Wins by the Seattle Seahawks

Yards by the rushing yardage leader
Yards by the receiving yardage leader

League touchdown passes
League interceptions, +375

Combined sacks by J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney
Sacks by Joey Bosa, +2

Repeat teams qualifying for the postseason
Wins by the Cincinnati Bengals

Longest field goal made by Justin Tucker
Longest punt by Johnny Hekker, -15 yards

Interceptions by Aqib Talib
Receiving touchdowns by Michael Crabtree

Touchdown passes by the TD pass leader
Rushing touchdowns by the rushing TD leader, +25

Passer Rating of Matt Ryan
Receptions by Julio Jones

Quarterbacks throwing for 4,000 or more yards
Receiving touchdowns by Rob Gronkowski

Touchdowns by Odell Beckham, Jr.
Margin of victory for the winner in Super Bowl LIII, plus 2.5

Touchdowns thrown by rookie quarterbacks
Interceptions thrown by rookie quarterbacks, +12

Championship game appearances by the Patriots, Steelers, Eagles, and Rams
Playoff berths by the Titans, Ravens, Panthers and Lions

Double digit wins by the Minnesota Vikings
Double digit losses by the Buffalo Bills

Longest receiving touchdown by any player
Longest rushing touchdown by any player, +10

Interceptions thrown by Josh Rosen
Interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers

Highest combined point total in a single game
Lowest combined point total in a single game, +90

Yards from scrimmage by Jay Ajayi
Passing yards by Nick Foles, +500

Combined sacks by Von Miller and Khalil Mack
Touchdown passes thrown by Jared Goff

League Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt
Wins by the Miami Dolphins

Games with 300 or more passing yards by Drew Brees
Games with 150 or more passing yards by Josh Allen

Combined wins by NFC teams
Combined wins by AFC teams, +10

Games with multiple interceptions thrown by Eli Manning
Games with multiple interceptions thrown by Blake Bortles

Wins by the Arizona Cardinals
Double digit wins by the San Francisco 49ers

Number of week 1 head coaches who do not coach 16 games
Number of times a quarterback throws 6+ TDs in a game, -0.5

Rushing touchdowns by Cam Newton
Rushing touchdowns by Le’Veon Bell

Games with 100 or more rushing yards by Ezekiel Elliott
Games with 100 more receiving yards by Antonio Brown

Teams with 11 or more wins
Teams with 11 or more losses

Combined wins by the Buccaneers and Jets
Combined losses by the Saints and Patriots

Sacks by Khalil Mack
Wins by the Chicago Bears, +1.5

Defensive interceptions by the Oakland Raiders
Interceptions thrown by Derek Carr, +2.5

AFC team wins Super Bowl LIII
NFC team wins Super Bowl LIII