The way to generate team ratings is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the two international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are 4.5-point underdogs to the Panthers in Carolina, we can imply that Carolina is viewed as 2 points better than the Jets (I am using 2.5 points for home field advantage). Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 272 point spreads involved.

Here’s how to read the table below. After adjusting for home field advantage, the Chiefs are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.94 points. On average, Kansas City’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are almost exactly average (+0.02 points per game better than average), which means the Chiefs are expected to be 6.96 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league; the worst team in the league is Houston. The Texans schedule is +0.17 points per game tougher than average, and Houston is expected to lose by an average of 8.21 points per game, implying that the Texans are 8.04 points per game worse than league average.

By this measure, the Steelers have the hardest schedule in the NFL at +0.76 points per game better than average. Meanwhile, the 49ers average opponent is 0.76 points per game worse than average, giving San Francisco the easiest schedule in the league.

Finally, here is the data for each game this season. You can read the chart as follows: Kansas City has an SRS rating of 6.96, and in week 1, the Chiefs are at home against the Browns. Cleveland has an SRS rating of 1.96. The spread for this game is Kansas City -7, which implies an in-game SRS rating for the Chiefs equal to +6.46 (start with 7, subtract 2.5 points for home field, and then add 1.96 points for a tough opponent implies that Kansas City is 6.46 points better than average in this game).

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

With 240 games involved, each team’s rating gets generated by looking at the point spread in their game and the point spreads in all other games by them, and the point spreads in all other games by their opponent, and the games for their opponent’s opponents, and so on. For the most part, the results match up pretty well. For example, in week 7, Houston is a 4-point road underdog in Indianapolis, and in week 11, the Texans are a 2-point home favorite against the Colts. The Steelers are 9-point home favorites against Cincinnati in week 4, and Pittsburgh is a 3-point road favorite against the Bengals in week 12.

For the most part, after we have derived each team’s rating, the point spreads then make a lot of sense. Pittsburgh has an SRS of +1.5 and Cincinnati has an SRS of -4.3, so it makes perfect sense that the Steelers would be 9-point home favorites and 3-point road favorites against the Bengals. But there are two games that don’t make much sense.

In week 8, the Bengals are facing the Rams in London. Los Angeles has an SRS rating of +5.4, making them 9.8 points better than Cincinnati. And if anything, home field should favor Cincinnati, as this is a really far trip for LA. And yet the Rams are 13-point favorites! In addition, the Seahawks have an SRS rating of +1.9, while the Falcons have an SRS rating of +0.4. All else being equal, the Seahawks should be 1.5 point favorites on a neutral field and 1.5-point dogs on the road. And yet when Seattle flies cross country to Atlanta, it is the Seahawks that are 1.5-point favorites. Weird.

Other than those games, all other point spreads are within 2 points of what we would project based on the SRS ratings of the two teams and the location of the game. This is why you don’t really need many games to come up with implied SRS ratings: for the most part, Vegas uses their team ratings to set lines, and the transitive property is applicable here (and matchup strengths are not).

Below are the point spreads for every game this season. Here’s how to read the table, which is fully sortable and searchable. Arizona has an SRS rating of -5.8, and in week 1, hosts Detroit who has an SOS of -3.3. The point spread in that game is a pick’em, and based on that point spread, the expected MOV is the Lions by 3 points.