There is one notable exception, and that was in 2017. But there’s a perfectly good explanation for that: the 2014 Draft class entered their fourth year in 2017. Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Jarvins Landry, Davante Adams, Sammy Watkins, along with an injured in 2017 Odell Beckham Jr., formed arguably the greatest draft class in wide receiver history. In addition, Adam Thielen is considered part of their class for NFL experience purposes: he went undrafted in 2013 but did not make the final roster, so his rookie year was 2014.

But otherwise, we see players in their first 3 seasons have become significantly more impactful in the receiving game (along with most places) since the new CBA. The graph below shows the percentage of receiving yards, by class year, for each year since 1990.

A couple of notes. You can follow a class year by moving down directionally like a bishop: in 2014, you see a dark blue for 1st-year players, and a dark blue for second-year players in 2015 and third-year players in 2016, and so on: that diagonal line is the 2014 class. Otherwise, we see that 2nd and 3rd year players are the ones making the big difference this year. The class of 2017 also looks strong: third-year players Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, George Kittle, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Christian McCaffrey, Evan Engram, and Curtis Samuel all are averaging at least 45 receiving yards per game this year.

But the unmistakable trend is that veterans are losing out to players on rookie contracts. And once the 2014 class slows down — they are at 12.0%, which is extremely high for 6th-year players — the trend may be even more significant.

Then, 2012 happened, when Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 all had great rookie seasons. Luck took a team from 2-14 to 11-5, set a rookie record for passing yards that still stands, and led the NFL with seven game-winning drives. He also was arguably the least-impressive of the trio. Griffin led the NFL in yards per attempt and in yards per carry. Wait just re-read that sentence again and let it sink in how remarkable that is. And then there was Wilson, who posted a 100.0 passer rating, led Seattle to an 11-5 record, and set a still-standing rookie record with 30 touchdowns.

In 2016, Dak Prescott basically out-Ryan’ed Ryan. His team went 13-3, Prescott set a rookie record with a 104.9 passer rating and 7.86 ANY/A. He had a 23/4 TD/INT ratio while also ranking 4th in NY/A.

And then last season, Deshaun Watson took the league by storm over seven games. Yes, it was only 7 games, but he produced 21 touchdowns and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and a 103.0 passer rating. He also averaged 7.5 yards per carry and was certainly gearing up to be in the discussion for greatest rookie seasons in quarterback history.

There have been 7 seasons since 1970 ^[1]It is worth noting that Greg Cook, Joe Namath, and Fran Tarkenton all had very good rookie seasons in the 1960s. where a passer had an ANY/A+ of 110 or higher: this means a season where his ANY/A was significantly above average. Marino 84 is one, and then the other six are all from active quarterbacks: Roethlisberger 04, Ryan 08, Griffin and Wilson 12, Prescott 16, and Watson 17.

Lest you think there’s something weird with ANY/A+ as a measuring stick, consider that since the merger, just 9 quarterbacks have made the Pro Bowl as rookies. Marino 83, and then… Vince Young 06, Andy Dalton 2011, Cam Newton 2011, Wilson/Griffin/Luck 12, Jameis Winston in 2015, and Prescott in 2016.

How about AP Offensive Rookie of the Year? In 1970, Dennis Shaw won a closely contested race: the Bills quarterback picked up 21 votes, Cowboys RB Duane Thomas had 16 votes and Raiders TE Raymond Chester received 13 votes. It’s possible that Thomas was already alienating the media as early as his rookie year, or that he was being being docked for the success of the team’s rookie running back the prior year. Regardless, Shaw did not have a very good season: Shaw was below average in both passer rating and ANY/A, and Buffalo went 3-8-1 under his watch.

And yet: from the inception of the AP OROY award in 1967 through 2003, Shaw was the only quarterback to win the award. But after going 1-for-37, quarterbacks now have a 50% success rate: Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Ryan, Sam Bradford, Newton, Griffin, and Prescott have all won the award in the last 14 seasons.

But perhaps here’s the best way to make the point. I know passer rating has soared in recent years, and looking at raw passer rating is basically useless. But still: ten years ago, the top three passer ratings by a rookie in NFL history (minimum 224 pass attempts) belonged to Marino, Roethlisberger, and… Charlie Batch!

So what do you think is the reason that rookie quarterbacks are much more likely to have success now than ever before?