And we could look at this two ways: did he coach a terrible team that got lucky to have a few more wins than they should have (in which case Gase should be considered a bad coach), or did he oversee a talent-poor team and coached them up to win more often than they should have (in which case Gase should be considered a good coach)?

From 2016 to 2018, Miami went 18-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points, and 20-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.  Both records were comfortably the best in the league.  So, is that sparkling record in close games a positive for Gase — hey, he’s a great coach who wins when the talent level is close! — or a negative for Gase (he’s a terrible coach who is lucky his teams won as often as they did).

Unfortunately for Jets fans, nearly all the research on this subject suggests that a team’s record in close games is not reflective of skill, but of luck.  The Jets have been terrible in close games in recent years, while Gase has been great: you would expect some regression to the mean in either instance, and I would project the Jets to be about .500 in close games during Gase’s tenure.

The bigger cause for concern, then, would be this: Gase went an almost unfathomable 3-19 in games decided by more than 8 points during his time in Miami.

A few months later, I dove even deeper into Gase’s weird splits in close and non-close games. Over his three years in Miami, Gase’s teams had the best record in the NFL in close games, and the second-worst record in non-close games.  Based on how the other highly-regarded coaches fared in this split, I wrote that “if Adam Gase is a great coach who was overachieving with a bad roster, he’s pretty unique in that regard.”

Fast forwarded 18 games later, and the evidence is more convincing than ever that Adam Gase is not a great coach.  The evidence is also still there that Gase has this weird split between close and non-close games. In New York, Gase is 2-9 in games decided by more than 8 points, and 5-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.  And that includes a game where the Jets trailed the winless Dolphins by 11 points with 20 seconds left, and kicked a field goal to cut the lead to 8 in the hopes of recovering an onside kick, scoring a touchdown, converting a 2-point attempt, and outscoring Miami in overtime.  If not for that meaningless field goal, Gase would be 2-10 in non-close games and 5-1 in close games with the Jets.

But ultimately, Gase is 5-28 in games decided by more than 8 points in his now 4+ year head coaching career.  He’s also 25-8 in close games!  The graph below shows the points differential for Gase’s teams in each of his 67 games as head coach.  If you think this graph looks like an iceberg, you are right: most of the action takes place below the surface.

Ultimately, Gase’s 25-8 record in one-score games remains remarkable.  But I don’t think there are too many people these days who view that as a sign of him being a great head coach.  In general, we should realize that lots of luck goes into who wins and loses close games, and points differential is a much better indicator of play than a win-loss record.  That also is worth keeping in mind when talking about certain quarterbacks who play very well but don’t have great records due to a poor record in close games.

Two of the best coaches of the last 20 years. Belichick is 3-0 against Reid in the postseason.

How do you get to the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a head coach? Here’s a helpful flow chart.

Did you win 3 rings? If so, proceed to Canton (9)

If you win three championships as a head coach in the NFL, you are going to make the Hall of Fame. There are only 10 men who can make that claim, and nine of them are already enshrined in Canton: George Halas, Curly Lambeau, Paul Brown, Chuck Noll, Joe Gibbs, Weeb Ewbank, Vince Lombardi, Bill Walsh, and Guy Chamberlin. The 10th, of course, is Bill Belichick, who will at some point retire and then be a first ballot inductee.

Did you win 2 rings plus have a third appearance? If so, proceed to Canton (3)

Two of the best head coaches ever — Don Shula and Tom Landry — fall into this category. Both are also in the top four in all-time wins. The third is Bill Parcells, who also took two different teams, and three different quarterbacks, to the Super Bowl.

Did you win 2 out of every 3 games and coach for 10+ years? If so, proceed to Canton (4)

Ray Flaherty coached the Redskins in the ’30s and ’40s, winning two titles, and then had success with the New York Yankeees in the AAFC. He coached for 11 seasons and won 68% of his games.

Tony Dungy won 67% of his games and coached for 22 seasons. He ranks 10th all-time in games above .500, so he was always going to be a lock for the Hall of Fame. He won one ring, and has some other factors in his favor, but his resume easily eclipses the bar for admission.

John Madden, like Dungy, has some extras he brings to the HOF table, but he won 75% of his games for a decade… and a Super Bowl. That’s a HOF resume without any of the additional contributions.

Finally, we get to the first Hall of Fame head coach who didn’t win a title: George Allen. He coached the Redskins and Rams for a dozen years, and only made one Super Bowl appearance: a loss to the undefeated Dolphins. His teams went one-and-done six times. ^[1]Allen also had some bad luck: only twice did he have a home playoff game, and his teams won both times. In 1967, his Los Angeles Rams teams were great, but because of the rules of the era which … Continue reading

Finally, a word about Blanton Collier. He won two-thirds of his games, but only coached for eight years; he’s the only head coach to coach more than five seasons — and fewer than ten — with such a strong winning percentage. Collier’s career can be broken into 8-year runs: he spent the first 8 years in Cleveland Browns history as an assistant under Paul Brown; he then left for an 8-year stint as the head coach at the University of Kentucky, and then returned to Cleveland as Brown’s successor for 8 years. Collier won 1 ring, but didn’t coach long enough to stand out in an era of great coaches.

Did you win two titles before 1950? If so, you’re in (3)

Brown and Lombardi raised the stakes of what a great head coach could accomplish, but everyone must be judged by their era.

• Jimmy Conzelman won a title with Providence in 1928 and then the Chicago Cardinals in 1947.

• Greasy Neale won back-to-back titles with the Eagles in ’48 and ’49.

• Steve Owen won with the Giants in ’34 and ’38.

There were only 7 head coaches chosen for the Hall of Fame before 1970: Halas and Lambeau in the inaugural class of ’63, Conzelman in ’64, Chamberlin in ’65, Owen in ’66, Brown in ’67, and then Neale in ’69.

Did you lead a legendary “dynasty”? That’s enough, too (3)

Marv Levy and Bud Grant each made four Super Bowls in a short window with the same franchise. That separates them a bit from Dan Reeves, who made three Super Bowls with the Broncos and then a fourth with the Falcons. Reeves is an arguable Hall of Fame snub, although Levy and Grant both had better winning percentages, too. Levy had a 0.615 winning percentage in 12 years in Buffalo (he was not so good prior to that in Kansas City) and Grant had a 0.621 winning percentage during his 18-year career in Minnesota; Reeves had a .601 winning percentage and made three Super Bowls in 12 years in Denver, but had below-average winning percentages in Atlanta and New York. If you are looking to find some day light between the resumes of Grant/Levy and Reeves, it’s not hard to find. Even if you want to put them in the same tier, Reeves would clearly be at the bottom of that tier.

Jimmy Johnson is the weakest Hall of Fame coach in a very long time, and perhaps ever. The most promising view of his career is to lump him in with Lombardi/Noll/Walsh/Belichick as coach of the team of the decade, and to give him some extra credit for popularizing his draft chart and/or the third ring the Cowboys won after he departed. Johnson also gets credit for building the Cowboys from the ground up, in a way that you wouldn’t say about George Seifert or Tom Flores.

The Rest (3)

Hank Stram won two titles and 62% of his games as head coach for 15 years with the Chiefs. That is a near identical resume to Mike Shanahan with the Broncos — 2 rings, 62%, 14 years — and I suspect that Shanahan will make it one day. If not, the most plausible explanation is that the bar has been raised. Stram is a worthy Hall of Fame pick — he made the Chiefs the best team in the 10-year history of the AFL.

What separates him from the 2-ring coaches who are *not* in the Hall of Fame? Tom Coughlin won just 53% of his games with both the Giants and Jaguars. George Seifert was the 49ers head coach for only 8 years, and failed after three years with the Panthers. Buddy Parker won two rings with the Lions in 6 years, but didn’t do much to boost his HOF credentials with 8 years in Pittsburgh. Tom Flores won 61% of his games in Oakland, but was only there for 9 years; he failed in three seasons with the Seahawks. And while Lou Saban won two AFL titles with the Bills, he had a losing record for his career.

Sid Gillman is in both the College and Pro Football Hall of Fame, and is one of the legendary coaches in pro football history for his innovations in the passing game. Gillman also made it during a bit of a lull for the Hall: Ewbank was chosen in ’78, and Landry in ’90 — in between, Gillman’s induction in ’83 was the only one for a head coach. He wasn’t competing with Landy/Walsh/Noll/Grant/Gibbs or Shula, who all were still active head coaches in 1983. As a pure head coach (i.e., ignoring his contributions to the game), he probably doesn’t make it if he replicates that career today.

Finally, we get to the newest choice: Bill Cowher. Among the head coaches with one ring, he is tied for 3rd with his successor, Mike Tomlin, in wins over .500, trailing only Madden and Dungy. Cowher had an impressive 0.623 winning percentage over 18 seasons. Among the 1-ring head coaches who are eligible for the Hall of Fame (i.e., ignoring Tomlin, Mike McCarthy, Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, and John Harbaugh), there’s only one head coach with a resume like Cowher who is not in the Hall of Fame.  That’s Mike Holmgren, who also has a good chance to one day make it.

Where Does Reid Fall?

Reid ranks 7th all-time in wins and 7th all-time in wins over. 500; of course, the 6 men above him all won championships, and #8 on both of those lists is Marty Schottenheimer, who has not made the Hall of Fame and did not win a Super Bowl.

So why do I think Andy Reid get lumped with George Allen, Bud Grant, and Marv Levy, and not Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, or Don Coryell?

Of those 8 head coaches, Reid has the most wins and the most wins over .500. In terms of winning percentage, the .600 mark is a pretty clear dividing line: Allen (.705) and Grant (0.620) both clear it, while Reeves (0.535) and Knox (0.558) fall short. Reid is at 0.618, and while that may still change, he is very likely to finish his career above 0.600. Of course, Schottenheimer is at 0.613, but Coryell (0.572) and Knox (0.558) fall short.

And when it comes to playoff success, Reid does well among this group. Assuming a loss today (since a win makes all of this moot), he would be 14-15 in the postseason; Levy and Grant are a combined 21-20. This is the clearest and simplest place for the Hall to make a distinction between Reid and Schottenheimer, who went just 5-13 in the postseason. Knox and Coryell also had worse records in the playoffs.

In short, even with a loss today, Reid still fits the profile of a Hall of Fame head coach. He’ll have made two Super Bowls; while that’s still two fewer than Grant and Levy, it’s also one more than Allen. He’ll have more wins and more wins over .500 than all of them. He’ll have a respectable playoff record, which Allen, Coryell, and Schottenheimer do not. And he’ll have a great regular season winning percentage, which Reeves and Knox do not. And while he won’t be a top-10 coach of all time, at 79 games over .500 in the regular season, he’s ahead of 1-ring coaches like Dungy, Cowher, and Madden in this regard (and well ahead of Gillman). And while those three each won one ring, they were a combined 30-26 in the playoffs with their fair share of disappointments. Their playoff resumes were more of a negative for those three than a positive, so Reid’s potential 14-15 mark shouldn’t be enough to keep him out.