I guess my point is that there’s no reason to think that offensive players don’t get fatigued also. The data shows that offenses don’t score more points as the game goes on, nor do they have any advantage at the end of a long drive. And being on the field a lot in a particular game doesn’t seem to have any predictive power other than the implication that the defense probably isn’t very good. So I would guess that any effects of defensive fatigue are probably negated by the effects of offensive fatigue.

One idea might be to compare first quarter stats vs. fourth quarter (when the game is tied) or overtime stats. But even that can be tricky because late-game strategies are often different than early-game strategies. Matt’s idea to look at pace is an interesting idea, though.