Comments on: Arians Attempts to Make History, Kicks Chip Shot Field Goal Down 18 http://www.footballperspective.com/arians-attempts-to-make-history-kicks-chip-shot-field-goal-down-18/ NFL History and Stats Tue, 22 Oct 2013 17:05:05 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Chase Stuart http://www.footballperspective.com/arians-attempts-to-make-history-kicks-chip-shot-field-goal-down-18/#comment-52637 Tue, 22 Oct 2013 17:05:05 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=14646#comment-52637 In reply to Allen.

The criticism is based on the math, not the history.

The criticism is that the Cardinals made a decision that was not only a negative EV proposition, but it was also one that reduced the team’s variance. Arians should be looking to maximize the team’s EV, or increase their variance, but certainly not neither.

The historical fact that no team has won a game while kicking a field down in the 4Q when down by 18 isn’t shown to prove that kicking was the wrong decision, but was shown as a response to someone who thinks the smart move is to always take the points.

]]> By: Allen http://www.footballperspective.com/arians-attempts-to-make-history-kicks-chip-shot-field-goal-down-18/#comment-52635 Tue, 22 Oct 2013 16:58:37 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=14646#comment-52635 In reply to Chris.

Nonsense. If you’re going to criticize a coach for selecting a strategy, you need to be able to show that your strategy has a measurably better chance of success. Saying “it can’t be worse” doesn’t mean it’s better. If the other strategy hasn’t been successful either, it means his choice is just as valid as yours.

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