Comments on: 2013 Fumble Recovery Data Has Jets, Cowboys at Extremes

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sun, 28 Jun 2015 05:01:00 +0000

I wonder if this could largely be because of the small number of fumbles that occur in a year. Assuming that most teams force about 16 fumbles a year like Dallas did, the difference between recovering 50 and 70 percent of fumbles is 2-3 fumble recoveries on the entire season. In contrast, QBs usually throw about 500 passes in a season, so a 20 percent drop off in completion % between years is about 100 passes. I wonder if there would be such a stat variation from one year to the next in fumble recovery rates if football teams played 162 games like in baseball.

By: Jeff from Indy

Jeff from Indy — Mon, 19 May 2014 13:49:14 +0000

Charles – This is a very interesting perspective on fumbles and expanded my horizon on the topic

However, you’re Opp Fumbles Recovered calculations are using an incorrect recovery factor of .476 vs .524

If 47.6% of fumbles are recovered by the Offense, the 52.4% are recovered by the Defense

The sum (at the bottom) of the Fumbles Lost and Opp Fumbles Lost must equal 20.5 – instead they equal 19.6

Using the 52.4% recovery rate, Opp Fumbles Lost will be 10.7 and the sum will be 20.5, as it MUST be

This factor has also been used incorrectly in the FR Expected logic and line of thought

Regards – Jeff from Indy