Comments on: 13 Points > 14 Points, Part II http://www.footballperspective.com/13-points-14-points-part-ii/ NFL History and Stats Fri, 16 Feb 2018 17:34:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Richie http://www.footballperspective.com/13-points-14-points-part-ii/#comment-332077 Fri, 16 Feb 2018 17:34:00 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=37124#comment-332077 In reply to Chase.

This is still probably an artifact of game situation. I think even in the first half, teams are more likely to kick a field goal in a close game. Especially if that field goal is giving them the lead.

What if you broke this chart down again, into: “teams that had 13 points, and the lead at halftime” and “teams that had 13 points, and were trailing at halftime”?

]]> By: Richie http://www.footballperspective.com/13-points-14-points-part-ii/#comment-332076 Fri, 16 Feb 2018 17:30:00 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=37124#comment-332076 Yeah, the quick thought on this one was that it’s a time of possession issue. But that doesn’t really make sense because teams are generally +/- one possession of their opponent. A typical FG scoring drive probably doesn’t take a lot more time than a typical punt drive. And even if it did, the 13-point game is still only 3 scores. That still leaves about 10 possessions per game that did not end in scores. Those 3 possessions shouldn’t be enough to have such a big effect on the outcome of the games.

Today’s charts show that this is really more about game situations. Look at all those FG’s in the final 5 minutes. Teams are mainly attempting those field goals because they have a significant effect on the win probability of those games.

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